There are a lot of statistics I went through this game before making a selection, but the last thing I looked at was the coaching and the edge is clearly on Urban Meyer. Clemson under Swinney are 2-3 SU and ATS in bowl games and they are 11-6 SU and 8-8 ATS following a loss which once again they came off of against South Carolina a superior opponent. Urban Meyer throughout his career is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS following a loss. We already saw when Michigan State beat Stanford that the loss was legit. We also saw Iowa give LSU everything they could so the Big Ten is gaining respect and I think we get this line at a value. Also Meyer is 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games and don't forget Ohio State has not been able to go since the 2011 season. I don't see that you'll see the traditional hang over from being one game away from the National Championship.
Now that we have the better coach on our side I took a look at what each team does well and where there struggles were and can they over come them to win this game? With that said I think we all know that both teams have great offenses and the defenses are not very good. Can Clemson stop Ohio State's nation leading rushing attack? The answer is no, actually it is an absolutely no chance no way. There were a lot of great running backs, but Carlos Hyde was the best one I saw all year. Braxton Miller is also easily a top rusher not as only a QB so stopping that just is not going to be possible. Clemson's run defense allowed 200+ to all 3 solid rushing teams they faced.
The #1 key in this game probably though is Ohio State's pass defense which really struggled and I think this is where the coaching comes into play. This is where the time off really benefits the Buckeyes and don't forget Urban Meyer played DB in college. Clemson is 86th in protecting their QB and Ohio State has a great pass rush ranking 28th in sack %. Noah Spence and Joey Bosa and Ryan Shazier are all top talents. Both South Carolina and Florida State featured top 40 pass rushes that defeated Clemson. Clemson has a 96 QB rating in their losses and a 175 QB rating in their wins. Ohio State is also great at getting tackles in the backfield with 89 on the season which is impressive for a Big 12 team. To put it in perspective Michigan State's had 91, and Clemson allowed 88, while Ohio State only had 46. Which sets us up for how a team is going to do on 3rd down.
Ohio State held opponents to 34% conversions on third down while Clemson held opponents to 31%, but in Clemson's losses they allowed 58% and we already established that Ohio State will play ahead of the chains all game long with their elite running tandem. They were 49% on third down this season better than Clemson's offense which was 44%. The same is transitioned over to the red zone where Ohio State was 83% on 60 attempts to Clemson 67% on 56 attempts. In the end the Buckeyes need and want a post season win and Urban Meyer is thirsty for one. Dabo Swinney got his big upset last year vs. LSU. I look for Ohio State to get a double digit win for us.
